Rare Earth Prices Fluctuate Upward, Market Transactions Recover [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]

August 21 News:

Rare Earth Ore:

Today, the price range of rare earth carbonate is 51,000-51,300 yuan/mt, monazite prices have been adjusted to 57,500-59,500 yuan/mt, and medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore prices are around 232,000-234,000 yuan/mt. Currently, the demand for rare earth ore remains weak, with separation plants showing low purchase willingness. Although rare earth ore prices have increased in line with the market prices of oxides, actual trading in the market remains sluggish.

Rare Earth Oxides:

Currently, lanthanum oxide prices are temporarily stable at 4,300-4,900 yuan/mt, cerium oxide prices remained stable this week at 10,500-11,000 yuan/mt, and lanthanum and cerium prices remain relatively stable this week. This week, Pr-Nd oxide prices saw a significant increase, rising rapidly to 630,000-634,000 yuan/mt within the week, with a WoW increase of 13.4%, driven by factors such as continued tightness in upstream supply, a noticeable increase in downstream export orders, and speculative capital inflows into the futures market. For medium-heavy rare earths, prices of medium-heavy rare earth oxides began to recover this week. Gadolinium oxide prices rose significantly along with Pr-Nd prices, currently reaching 182,000-184,000 yuan/mt. Dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices also saw an increase due to traders buying the dip, leading to more active inquiries and suppliers raising their quotes, with low-priced supplies quickly tightening. Erbium oxide prices also saw a notable increase this week, rising to 330,000-334,000 yuan/mt, as buyers showed high interest. Yttrium oxide prices remained stable this week within the 48,000-50,000 yuan/mt range, with no significant fluctuations.

Rare Earth Metals:

This week, Pr-Nd alloy prices closed at 765,000-770,000 yuan/mt, with a WoW increase of 13%. This was mainly due to a significant increase in export orders from downstream magnetic material enterprises, end-users stockpiling in advance, and robust growth in the procurement demand for Pr-Nd alloys, which led to a rapid price rise at the beginning of the week. However, as the order situation of magnetic material enterprises could not support high Pr-Nd alloy prices, the market slowed down after the initial surge, with transactions becoming stagnant. For medium-heavy rare earths, terbium metal prices closed at 8.7-8.8 million yuan/mt, and dysprosium-iron alloy prices closed at 1.6-1.63 million yuan/mt. The overall slight increase in medium-heavy rare earth metal prices was influenced by increased restocking activities from magnetic material enterprises. Market inquiry activity improved compared to last week, with more actual transactions, but these were mainly for low-price, essential restocking, making it difficult for high-priced deals to close.

Rare Earth Permanent Magnets:

NdFeB blank prices, NdFeB N38 (Ce) blanks closed at 196-206 yuan/kg; NdFeB 40M blanks closed at 242-252 yuan/kg; NdFeB 40H blanks closed at 246-256 yuan/kg; NdFeB 45SH (Ce) blanks closed at 296-316 yuan/kg.

Supported by the rigid cost of soaring prices for upstream rare earth oxides and metals, domestic magnetic material prices saw a rapid and significant increase this week. Cost pressures on enterprises surged, with some magnetic material producers forced to suspend quotations or adopt a daily effective quotation strategy at the beginning of the week when prices rose by over 40,000 yuan in a single day. However, price transmission to the end-user was hindered: the high raw material costs far exceeded the expectations of downstream motor manufacturers and end-users, leading them to generally pause procurement and focus on digesting inventories instead. The price transmission from magnetic materials to the end-user has not been fully realized. Against this backdrop, it is difficult for magnetic material enterprises to raise quotes in tandem with the downstream market; they can only increase prices for new orders. Coupled with the strong willingness of end-users to purchase as needed and their weak tolerance for raw material premiums, the profit margins of magnetic material enterprises have been severely squeezed. Some producers even had to take measures such as strategically reducing their customer base to protect themselves. These multiple factors ultimately led to a relatively low overall trading activity in the market this week.

Rare Earth Scrap:

This week, the price of Pr-Nd recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 583-588 yuan/kg; the price of dysprosium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 1,643-1,654 yuan/kg; the price of terbium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 5,439-5,550 yuan/kg.

This week, influenced by the fluctuating rise in the oxide market, the scrap market's prices showed an overall trend of fluctuating upward. Due to the stalemate in the Pr-Nd oxide market, the price of Pr-Nd scrap experienced a jump initially and then pulled back, weakening the sentiment of holding back sales in the scrap market. Although there was a pullback after the initial jump, the weekly gain still reached 4%, with Pr-Nd scrap prices remaining at a high level, and the overall willingness to sell among scrap suppliers increased. Given the rapid rise in oxide prices, recycling companies were cautious in their purchases, adopting a conservative quotation strategy to control the volume of scrap procurement. Trading in the scrap market improved WoW, with an increase in the circulation of scrap. Overall, affected by the stalemate in the oxide market, recycling companies, considering costs, have reduced their willingness to chase high-priced scrap. In the short term, it is expected that the scrap market will be impacted by the stalemate in the oxide market, limiting the upside room for prices.